Ruslan Grinberg: "The main danger - the impoverishment of the population"
Scientific Director of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, member of the Russian Academy of Sciences Ruslan Grinberg answered questions about the state of the Russian economy at the press festival "All Russia" in Dagomys.
- Why the state reduces the number of banks, ie, in fact, just strangles it?
- The state reduces greatly the number of banks in order to make the banking system more manageable. It can, and it would be good. From the outset, it was impossible to allow anyone who wanted to, in the banking sector. However, the crisis has played its role. The banks have the growing volume of delinquent loans. Neither the people nor the companies cannot pay. There is a third factor: there are companies that want to take over the bank. Moreover, this involves power. All banks, except for maybe the first five or ten, are under fire.
- In the banking sector, as in many others, monopoly has been created.
- That is right, and there is nothing to be surprised. Strictly speaking, our country is monopolized. It is always bad. When there is a monopoly, sauna five by five meters will be enough to start negotiations. In Germany, it will be necessary to have a sauna kilometer by kilometer to gather all participants in any market sector. It would be not possible to find an agreement. We have every wherever all cartels and monopolies, but there is an important detail. We live in a global world. This is an open world where operates the process of centralization and concentration of capital.
- What can you say about the strangeness of pension savings?
- It was a stupidity to distribute money to private insurance companies. The State undertakes to pay. These guys... they put there, where it is not necessary. They thought we had "long" money, as in America. However, what kind of "long" money exists in Russia? Everybody lives today. In Russia, there is no place to invest, and this is also a problem. This is the basic reason of paralysis of the investment activity of...
- What economic dangers are characteristic for the current situation in the country?
- In my opinion, the biggest economic threat is the impoverishment of the population, and it is dangerous for the authorities and for the country as a whole. Inflation, contraction of economic activity, lack of confidence in all except the first person...
This can lead that it will be necessary to rationing. The state can introduce cards for vulnerable lays of people. If there are so much poor people, it is best to keep prices low and to subsidize trade from the budget. However, if there are very little poor people, it is better to pay extra to them in order to maintain their purchasing power. Obviously, it is necessary to subsidize - select about ten products and keep the price on it.
In general, I confess honestly, a few years ago, I was convinced that sooner or later Russia will follow the Western path, the system of three "D": children, money, home. Those who make decisions in Russia, have children, money and property in the countries they criticize. I thought that was a guarantee. However, no, it turns out that you can get off to show curse America and have children, money and home in America. This inferiority complex is mixed up with delusions of grandeur. This is our perception of the world today. Defeat of the 90’s is a big trauma. Crimea and Donbas are significant - people are happy, but how long will it last?
Russia has a strong immune system. According to various estimates, about 80 billion dollars the Russians have "in the mattresses." It is possible to survive. Even in the "dark years" 80 percent did not live but survived. The middle class is now shrinking.
- Tell me, what is the most favorable outlook for the economy?
- Then everything will be good again if China restores its economy, and the demand for resources will resume at the previous volume. However, we have nothing to hope for. The current impasse, it is both economic and political, and cultural, ideological and whatever you want. It is not very clear…
Mir, Andrei Knyazev